Macau Casinos on Course to Exceed 2025 GGR with Q1 Upsurge

(AsiaGameHub) –   According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), Macau’s casinos recorded MOP22.62 billion ($2.8 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for March, representing a 15% increase compared to the same period in 2025. This figure also marks a 9.8% rise over February, bolstered by strong visitor numbers and gaming activity during the Lunar New Year period.

Total GGR for the first quarter reached MOP65.87 billion, a 14.3% improvement over Q1 2025. While this quarterly performance remains 13.5% below 2019 levels, CBRE Equity Research suggests that if current trends persist, total 2026 revenue could climb 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing the firm’s initial 6% growth projection.

Economic stimulus boosts consumer confidence

In a report released Monday, CBRE analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh attributed the positive momentum to strong tourism, the ongoing development of the base mass market, and a stabilizing Chinese economy.

Beijing has established a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for the year. Public policy expert Zhu Fangfei described this as a transition “from high-speed growth to … high-quality development.” DeCree and Marsh noted that “the Chinese consumer continues to benefit from targeted stimulus.”

The analysts added that for most operators, the revenue growth seen in the first quarter of 2026 was sufficient to sustain EBITDA expansion, even for those that may have sacrificed some GGR market share to prioritize profitability. Furthermore, they noted that operating costs and competitive pressures among the six major casino concessionaires are beginning to stabilize.

“We expect promotional activity to remain elevated but stabilise in full-year 2026,” they stated. Additionally, they noted that rising operational expenditures “should also normalise as many concession-related opex investments are now baked into the cost structure.”

Macau banks on mass play, entertainment

The investment firm noted that continued investment in entertainment offerings in Macau “should attract additional visitation, particularly from the base mass segment that has yet to fully recover.”

This strategy aligns with findings from Macao News, which observed that March is typically a slower month for tourism outside of holiday periods. To counter this, operators have utilized high-profile performances to drive traffic. For instance, on March 28, the K-pop group ATEEZ performed to a sold-out crowd of 14,000 at the Venetian Arena, while rapper Mark Tuan drew over 5,000 fans to the Studio City Event Center on the same evening.

Operators are diversifying their entertainment lineups to appeal to a broader demographic. Last summer, Citi analysts credited a series of concerts by Cantopop star Jacky Cheung with driving a 16% rise in premium play at Galaxy Macau and a 36% increase in average wagers.

2026 outlook still short of pre-Covid benchmark

CBRE’s 8.6% GGR growth forecast is more than double the local government’s more conservative outlook. Macau officials have set an annual GGR target of MOP236 billion, a 3.5% increase over the revised 2025 goal of MOP228 billion.

Meanwhile, S&P Global anticipates “slow but steady” growth between 3% and 7% as the market shifts “from a post-pandemic rebound to a more maturity-driven phase,” while Jefferies projects annual growth of 5.3%. None of these firms expect GGR to surpass the MOP292.45 billion recorded in 2019.